SINGLE FAMILY HOUSES
"Is there really any reason to complain?" This was a question I poised to myself last month in a review of the Chilliwack real estate sales. Amidst souring Vancouver real estate news stories and belly aching by local agents the June numbers came in with a 12 percent downturn in the number of single family house sales as when compared to May. NO reason for alarm, there could be a rebound in July I said - it's happened before. Just wait.
I am still waiting.
Meanwhile single family house sales in July 2010 dropped by a THIRD when compared to June 2010 with only 100 sales reported in July. Their average sale price of $341,000 retreating from the consistent prices of the last three months of nearly $362,000. What is happening? I looked back on my 30 years of real estate experience and came to realize that I had seen this pattern before. For lack of a better term I call it a "shock market" but maybe it should be called a "market in shock".
A "shock market" occurs when items such as the introduction of a new tax,
changes in lending regulations, political instability or economic upheaval causes the market to step back to the sidelines to wait and see what will happen. Currently, we are faced with HST, new
more stringent regulations in mortgage lending and a fragile economy. The result is the worst real estate "July" market in over a DECADE. The average number of "July" sales for the past ten years being a healthy 172. The good news is the market hates being sidelined and will rebound shortly. It always does - just wait.
I should mention that seasonally we do expect fewer and fewer sales after June. The Chilliwack area has for instance a 10 year sales average in June of 176 compared to a July average of 172.
The median value of a single family detached house for sale as of this date has also dropped $6,000 to $359,000.
Chilliwack* Single Family Detached Housing Sales Report - July 2010
MONTH | Sales | Average Sale Price | Days on Market | Active Listings |
July 2010 | 100 | $341,000 | 61 | 1078 |
June 2010 | 151 | $362,000 | 61 | 1020 |
July 2009 | 160 | $345,000 | 74 | n/a |
Median Price of Active Chilliwack* Single Family Detached Real Estate Listings: Aug 1, 2010 - $359,000
Is Chilliwack alone? Have other real estate markets also underperformed?
Yes.
The real estate market in the "Fraser Valley West" of the Vedder Canal did no better, sales, in July, dropped to 616 from the June number of 1039. The "Fraser Valley* West" average sales price in July being $578,000 and a long ways from the Chilliwack average price of $341,000. Huh? Chilliwack what a great place to retire or relocate your plant to.
STRATA HOMES
Townhouses and apartments make up the bulk of the strata market and they to took a hit in July registering only 44 sales in the month. This decade has seen poorer "July" strata sale performances back in 2001 and 2002 but an average "July" strata market should see nearly 75 sales in a month. Despite this, the average sale price managed to increase to $228,000 perhaps due to a small statistical sample size or maybe a bunch of newer townhouses coming on the market and being absorbed.
Chilliwack* Strata Housing (apartments, townhouses) Sales Report - July 2010
MONTH | Sales | Average Sale Price | Days on Market | Active Listings |
July 2010 | 44 | $228,000 | 79 | 552 |
June 2010 | 71 | $213,000 | 83 | 539 |
July 2009 | 92 | $226,000 | 96 | n/a |
Median Price of Active Chilliwack* Strata Real Estate Listings: Aug 1, 2010 - $224,900
*
The Strata section of the residential housing market remains firmly in "Buyers Market territory" a great time to buy.
*The analysis above is based on my interpretation of information provided through the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board and does not include private sales. The term "Chilliwack" is used quite loosely to refer to an area serviced by the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board which includes communities such as Chilliwack, Sardis, Cultus Lake, Yarrow, Rosedale, Agassiz, Harrison Hot Springs, Harrison Mills. Hope, Yale and Boston Bar. The Fraser Valley West embraces the entire Fraser Valley Real Estate Board area from Abbotsford west to Delta.
Stephen Mullock RI is an award winning full-time real estate agent with 29 years of experience and hundreds of sales. Thinking of buying or selling real estate in the Fraser Cheam communities of Chilliwack, Agassiz or Harrison Hot Springs?
Contact Steve (click here) for experience, local knowledge, friendly service that is usually on time; you’ll be happy you did.
Copyright (cc) Stephen Mullock August 1,2010