Sunday, October 2, 2011

Chilliwack* Real Estate Market Analysis and Review: October 1, 2011


This post looks at the relative strength of the Chilliwack* residential real estate market in the month of September 2011.  This "armchair analysis" of mine uses data from the Multiple Listing Services of the Chilliwack & District and Fraser Valley real estate boards. Each real estate market is comprised of a number of neighbourhoods and reviews of specific properties should involve the services of a real estate professional member of the REIBC or a Realtor®.

My credentials are fairly simple, over 30 years real estate experience in the Chilliwack real estate market and an active curiosity.

Chilliwack* Single Family Detached Housing Sales Report for September 2011


For Sale: 6432 Wilson Road - New Price

MONTH Sales Average Sale Price Days on Market Active Listings
Sept 2011 116 $333,000 77 1078
Aug 2011 127 $349,000 78 1128
Sept 2010 104 $313,000 66 n/a

NEW - Median Sale Price of Chilliwack* Single Family Detached Homes: September 2011 - $331,000

Median Price of Active Chilliwack* Single Family Detached Real Estate Listings: October 1, 2011 - $379,900

There are a number of areas I regularly explore and the first is one that answers the question "How is the market".  A few years ago, I realized that seasonal influences impact the Chilliwack* market and so comparing sale numbers with those of a month earlier only told part of the story.  In the present situation we see that September 2011 had 116 single family sales down from 127 in August.  This may seem bad but we expect sales to taper off this time of year.

A better measure is one that compares sales volume with a 10 year average for the month.  Looking at the previous 10 year of Septembers we can derive an average sale volume of 135 for the month of September.  So the September 2011 was operating at about 86% of that average (116/135).

A level of comparative sales volume similar to that in August 2011.

2011 Market Strength

Single Family House Monthly Unit Sales as % of 10-Year Monthly Sales Average

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept
2011 85% 91% 75% 70% 68% 93% 74% 86% 86%

What's happening with single family house prices?  The market for single family houses in the Chilliwack* area remains in Buyer Market territory with a sales to listing ratio of about 11%.  This applies downward pressure on prices and we see that the average sale price did slip from $349,000 in August 2011 to $333,000 in September 2011.  I would once again caution relying on this information for a specific property as not all types and neighbourhood rise and fall at the same rate.  If you are interested in determining value employ the services of a real estate professional with a local knowledge and expertise.

STRATA HOMES


Chilliwack* Strata Housing Sales Report for September 2011

MONTH Sales Average Sale Price Days on Market Active Listings
Sept 2011 40 $223,000 61 591
Aug 2011 64 $211,000 86 553
Sept 2010 31 $210,000 70 n/a

NEW - Median Sale Price of Chilliwack* Strata Homes: September 2011 - $229,000

Median Price of Active Chilliwack* Strata Real Estate Listings: October 1, 2011 - $215,000

September 2011 was a disappointing month for the sale of strata homes (apartments, townhouses, duplexes) with only 40 sales compared to a 10 year September average of 61. Inventory levels have shot up as a result.

FORECAST

On August 25, 2011 the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2011 third quarter housing forecast which calls for a moderate growth in sales for the coming year, but at a rate still well below activity levels recorded in the previous decade. Page two of the document deserves a closer look as it breaks down the province into the 11 real estate board areas that serve it and their specific results. From this table it is easy to understand that while as a province, home price might be increasing, this is due almost completely to the heated markets in Vancouver and the western Fraser Valley.

This is a great time for those in Vancouver and the western Fraser Valley take advantage of this price arbitrage by selling and then buying in another part of the province - I hear that properties in the eastern Fraser Valley are pretty nice.

Imagine living here....


Featured properties as of October 1, 2011
1645 No. 9 Hwy. Agassiz - $249,900
34856 Marshall Road, Abbotsford - $529,000
6432 Wilson Road, Agassiz - $599,000

Stephen Mullock RI is an award winning full-time real estate agent with 30 years of experience and hundreds of sales. Thinking of buying or selling real estate in the Fraser Cheam communities of Chilliwack, Agassiz or Harrison Hot Springs? Contact Steve (click here) for experience, local knowledge and friendly service you’ll be happy you did.

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