Wednesday, January 30, 2013

BCREA - BC House Price Projections and My Thoughts

The British Columbia Real Estate Association released its BC House Price Projections based on Multiple Listing Service® residential sales today and it looks like the Chilliwack* real estate market will maintain strength and improve a little albeit at a slow pace in 2013.

As shown on page two of the the BCREA Housing Forecast Update full report  the Chilliwack* real estate market can expect 2,050 unit sales in the year 2013 up marginally from 2007 unit sales in the year 2012.  Prices are anticipated to remain relatively flat, BCREA calculations show an average MLS® Price in Chilliwack* for 2012 was $299,537 and offers a prediction of $300,000 for 2013.

What does this all mean?  This is how I look at the numbers.

 In 2012, according to the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board there were 1994 sales, (slightly less than the BCREA number of 2007 perhaps reflecting sales that failed to complete and later collapsed) and 4,813 new MLS® listings created to which another 900 MLS® listings from the previous year should be added giving us a total residential inventory of about 5,700 MLS® units for sale.

The sale of 1994 units from a base of 5,700 units suggests that about 1 in 3 MLS® listings were sold in 2012.  

So 1 in 3, is that good?  It depends if you are one of the lucky ones life looks good but for every happy Seller there were two less than satisfied owners.  It looks like this ratio is not about to change in 2013.

What to do? 

Maximize your chances of a sale by hiring a local Realtor® and/or member of the Real Estate Institute of British Columbia and be receptive to adjustments in the Chilliwack real estate market.

Keep this in mind about predictions as Peter Drucker said:
Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window.

 * CHILLIWACK - the Chilliwack* referred to in this article refers the a vast geographic area that includes communities such as Boston Bar, Yale, Hope, Agassiz, Harrison Hot Springs, Bridal Falls/Popkum and Chilliwack.

The following is "copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission."

BC Home Sales to Trend Higher in 2013/2014
BCREA 2013 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update

Vancouver, BC – January 30, 2013.The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2013 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to increase 5.6 per cent to 71,450 units this year, before increasing a further 6.1 per cent to 75,830 units in 2014. The five-year average is 74,600 unit sales, while the ten-year average is 86,800 unit sales. A record 106,300 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.

"2013 is shaping up to be a transition year in the BC housing market,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “The groundwork has already begun for stronger housing demand as a significant number of part-time jobs in BC were converted into full-time employment last year."  

"Residential values are expected to be on a more solid footing in 2013 as lower prices, both actual and inflation adjusted, have improved affordability. Many potential buyers that stayed on the sidelines in 2012 will likely enter the marketplace over the next year as the relatively strong financial condition of BC households precludes any deflationary spiral."

The average MLS® residential price in BC is forecast to edge down nearly 1 per cent to $510,400 this year and remain relatively unchanged in 2014, albeit up 0.6 per cent to $513,500.

To view the full BCREA Housing Forecast Update, click here.

BCREA represents 11 member real estate boards and their approximately 18,000 REALTORS® on all provincial issues, providing an extensive communications network, standard forms, economic research and analysis, government relations, applied practice courses and continuing professional education (cpe). 

Stephen Mullock RI
is an award winning full-time real estate specialist with 30 years of experience and hundreds of sales. Thinking of buying or selling real estate in the Fraser Cheam communities of Chilliwack, Agassiz or Harrison Hot Springs? Contact Steve (click here) of Royal LePage Wheeler Cheam Realty for experience, local knowledge and friendly service you’ll be happy you did.

1 comment:

  1. Very informative post about housing update. But I think about market. I think very soon market can be increase. So now price increasing cam be harmful.