Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Chilliwack* Real Estate Market Analysis and Review: June 1, 2011


SINGLE FAMILY HOMES 

Chilliwack* Single Family Detached Housing Sales Report for May 2011

MONTH Sales Average Sale Price Days on Market Active Listings
May     2011  128 $355,000 66 1094
April      2011  118 $350,000 70 1046
May     2010  170 $366,000 62 n/a

Median Price of Active Chilliwack* Single Family Detached Real Estate Listings: June 1, 2011 - $379,900

Sometimes, it is hard to determine whether you are winning or losing especially when all you get to see is carefully selected information and all you hear is double speak that is why I like to do my own analysis. 

For instance, if all you saw was the information above you would see that prices on average for Single Family Houses in Chilliwack* went up in value. That on average they required fewer days to sell - that's good as well.  Prices on average for Single Family Homes in Chilliwack* were less in May than the same time a year ago.  You'd probably say that is expected - we are not living in Vancouver. By the way, Cameron Muir BCREA Chief Economist wrote an excellent article explaining some of the statistical problems surrounding a strong Vancouver market in an article called "Appearances Can Be Deceiving".  You might have an unsettling feeling if you looked at the inventory of 1094 houses and considered the 128 sales this past May a 12% sale to listing ratio firmly in Buyers Market Territory.  What you wouldn't know is that this May was the worst May in 10 years and that the Chilliwack Real Estate Market for Single Family Houses is currently in decline - appearances can be deceiving.


How was this conclusion reached?  Well on average, the Chilliwack* Single Family Housing market, in "May" during the last ten years, 2001 - 2010, had 187 May sales on average. So 128 sales this month divided by the 10 year average of 187 (128 / 187) = 68%.    If we call this turnover Velocity then the Chilliwack real estate market is in decline as the Velocity level in March was 75%, April 70% and now 68% in May. The Chilliwack Real Estate Market for Single Family Houses is in decline.

What can be done?  I get a number of inquires each week and this week I received one from a 45 year old family man exploring the thought of getting a real estate license.  While real estate sales remains a challenging and interesting job it is hard to say that there is a good living to be made in it currently.  So where usually 6 months salary would usually be needed to start a career perhaps an 8 month bankroll, given the market, might be more in line.

Sellers need to ensure that they are working with a professional local real estate agent and that all parts of their marketing mix are in order such as: price, product condition, access (place), and promotion.  All items should be reviewed on a frequent basis and new sales and competitors discussed.  Once that is done prepare to be patient. I have a tailored program that keeps my clients up to date on values in  their neighbourhood; other real estate agents will have something similar.

STRATA HOMES

Chilliwack* Strata Housing Sales Report for May 2011
MONTH Sales Average Sale Price Days on Market Active Listings
May      2011  70 $220,000 82
524
Apr     2011  69 $209,000 69 511
May     2010  75 $222,000 59
n/a

Median Price of Active Chilliwack* Strata Real Estate Listings: May 1, 2011 - $227,500

The Strata Market part of the Chilliwack* real market is faring much better and I would be considered it as being in the bottom of a Balanced Real Estate Market with a sale to listing ratio of 16%.  Good news.  Compared with a 10 year average for Strata Sales in May the Velocity rate is at 86%, holding steady from last month and not too bad given the still fragile nature of the economy.

Now for something on the lighter side...Michael Scott's Words of Wisdom


Notes:
This review and analysis looks at the residential markets in the Chilliwack* British Columbia area for the month of May 2011.  It is divided into two sections: single family houses and strata homes (apartments and townhouses) and is based upon my armchair analysis work.  Use it at your own discretion.

The analysis above is based on my interpretation of information provided by the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board and does not take into account private sales.

*The term "Chilliwack" is used here quite loosely to refer to an area serviced by the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board which includes communities such as Chilliwack, Agassiz, Harrison Hot Springs, Hope, Yale and Boston Bar. The Fraser Valley West area embraces the entire Fraser Valley Real Estate Board area which extends from Abbotsford to Delta.

Copyright June 1, 2011 by Stephen Mullock.

Stephen Mullock RI is an award winning full-time real estate agent with 30 years of experience and hundreds of sales. Thinking of buying or selling real estate in the Fraser Cheam communities of Chilliwack, Agassiz or Harrison Hot Springs? Contact Steve (click here) for experience, local knowledge and friendly service you’ll be happy you did.

2 comments:

  1. i appreciate the stats and info. keep them coming - they are very, very useful.

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  2. Im looking to buy detached house in hope but the sellers are asking 5% above the july2010 assessment. their house values have doubled in past 8 yrs. i dont get why they are so greedy. people pushed out of vancouver by chinese buyers have the rest of canada to move to.

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